2024 Popular Vote Prediction

2024 Popular Vote Prediction. So here is how our model translates polls and the other inputs it uses into probabilities in the electoral college and the popular vote in every state — plus some nightmare scenarios like a repeat of the 2000 florida recount. One to forecast the national popular vote, and another to predict the electoral college.

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. We forecast the popular vote only for candidates polling at 5 percent or higher nationally, polling at 10 percent or higher in at least one state or who are on the ballot in.